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Posts tagged RMB

Renminbi (CNY, RMB) may not depreciate as much as people thought

There are opinions saying that the Chinese government will not let RMB depreciate further as the government will not rely on exports only to support the economy (Remember China has a growing domestic market!)  Furthermore, this can lead to capital outflow from China, and depreciation of other Asian currencies. This view is supported by JP Morgan chief China economist Frank Gong and Director of Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Yu Yong Ding.

Their views seem to be right with the RMB stabilizing in the past few days.

RMB finally has started to drop against USD

Over the weekend, RMB has dropped 0.72% against the USD. It always surprised me that how come the RMB has not dropped even a little bit when other currencies like EUR, CAD, AUD and NZD have dropped more than 20% or more against the USD.

As the exchange rate is controlled by the Chinese government, I don’t see why the Chinese government would not prefer a weaker currency as this would help the export industries in China. The currency definitely has room to depreciate as it has appreciated quite fast in the past few years.

It would not be too surprising to see the exchange rate to go back to 1 USD = 7 RMB soon.

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