Hong Kong Financial News

Hong Kong Financial News

What you need to know in order to out-beat the Hong Kong Stock Market

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Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the SFC – The latest laughing stock of the financial world

After asserting that the blackout rule would not change because of the sudden protest by a group of listed company directors three days before the rule was supposed to be implemented, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has finally succumbed to the pressure of the ultra-wealthy company directors and politicians, and has backed down to make the new blackout plan more palatable to the wealthy company directors.

Under the new rule that will come effect on 1 April 2009, the black out period for insider dealing will be 60 days for annual report, and 30 days for quarterly or other interim reports.

This is just another blatant example of the government catering for the rich people. What’s going on with the SFC and the HKEx staying so firmly on their position and then bowing down to political pressure a few months later?

The rich rallying against the new black out rule

There were front page advertisements on major newspapers yesterday by a group consisting of 236 HK-listed companies, 6 professional groups (which include prominent figures such as David Li, Bank of East Asia Chairman) protesting against the new extended blackout period on directors’ dealings in their companies’ securities. The amendment will be effective starting 1 Jan 2009 and from 2009 onwards, directors can not deal with their companies’ securities from the end of financial period to the announcement of the relevant results. Currently the blackout only exists in the month before the announcement of results.

Why do they protest only 3 days before the change will be implemented? The proposed changes have been consulted properly (there is a consultation paper on this matter, published back in January 2008) and most listed company directors should know about this proposed change since it has been discussed in the media and there is even a Webb report on this matter back in April 2008 (http://www.webb-site.com/articles/blackout.htm). Somehow they just realized right before the change is implemented that it is against their interests. What are they doing now? They have money, so they spend money to buy front page advertisements on most newspapers to try to badmouth the Hong Kong Exchange, saying that the changes will be “detrimental to Hong Kong’s position as international financial centre”, in the hope that the SFC or the government will stop this new rule. Will the government succumb to these rich people’s demands? I definitely don’t think so and with the government approval rating at its lowest, agreeing to stopping this black out rule change will just further undermine the credibility of the Hong Kong government, in the mind of the general population. I definitely believe that what these listed company directors are doing is just plain stupid.

As to whether their claims have merits or not, I will discuss it tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Hong Kong Stock Exchange Daily Turnover fall below HKD 40 Billion

Today’s turnover was only HKD 39.84 billion, the smallest turnover in one and a half  year.  Compared to the daily turnover that was over HKD 150 billion last year, you can see how bad the market is now. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (388) is a stock that tracks quite closely the amount of activity on the exchange and it has also dropped from its height of HKD 250 to the current price of HKD 60. If turnover continues to be at this level, 388 will definitely go down further.

As it is already close to the end of the year, I won’t be surprised that volume won’t pick up until after Chinese New Year (i.e. February 2009). Until then, since volume is thin, people can drive the stock price up or down quite easily. So probably the Hang Seng will be range-bounded between 10000 – 15000 till February 2009. That’s my prediction.

History of Hong Kong Stock Exchange

I just installed the Youtube plugin so I’m testing it now. Attached is a video about the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

EWH: The ETF to capture HK exposure?

If you only have an US securities account and want to have exposure in the Hong Kong stock market, the easiest and most efficient way is buying an ETF. There are multiple ETFs in the US that have exposure in the HK market, but the most established, high volume traded ETF that has exposure in the HK market is definitely iShare MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH). Nevertheless, this famous HK ETF has its shortcomings.

The top five holdings in the fund are: Cheung Kong (1 HK), Sun Hung Kai (16 HK), Hong Kong Stock Exchange (388 HK), Hutchison Whampoa (13 HK) and Hang Seng Bank (5 HK). The ETF definitely covers the most important companies in the actual HK economy. But people may ask, “Where is HSBC (5 HK) or China Mobile (941 HK)?” These two stocks are the big elephants in the Hang Seng Index. These two stocks often contribute a few hundred points to the daily rise or drop in the Hang Seng Index; yet they are not included in the MSCI HK index. The reason behind this is that MSCI do not include these two stocks because these two companies have high foriegn ownership (HSBC is the biggest bank in HK, but then it is a British Bank; China Mobile is the largest mobile operator inside mainland China).

These days the HK stock market correlates more with the mainland stock market than the US market, but yet this famous ETF does not hold any Chinese state enterprise companies listed in Hong Kong. Nor does it even hold HSBC, the big elephant in HK stock market. Shouldn’t the MSCI people re-look at what’s in EWH currently and re-define their compsition?

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