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Archive for April, 2008

China stocks up 9% today!

With the government lowering the stamp duties for stocks, Chinese went up more than 9% today and it’s the biggest rise since the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges opened in 1990. At least 200 stocks have risen 10% – the daily upside limit.

 Is it a good sign? Finally dreams have come true for investors. The government finally invervenes: first it requires all block trades to go off-market, and now the stamp duties are back to 0.1 % from 0.3% – the same level it was a year ago before the market went berserk.

 Personally I believe it will provide support for short term. I give people confidence to go into the stock market again. But selling pressure will continue – particularly with the billions of shares with lock ups that expire this year. If there is another wave of selling pressure, the government can’t do much. And then this time it may be a fall even worse than what we are experiencing now.  Furthermore, all the positive catalysts seem to disappear soon after the Olympics.

The Olympic flame went off a few times in today’s torch relay event in Australia. Is it a bad omen for China?

Panic Selling in China Again

Panic Selling in China plus last Friday’s big drop causes the Hang Seng index to drop more than 800 points today. Rumors said that the Central government will raise interest rates and this has caused  today’s panic selling. But I believe that the government will soon support the stock market. They won’t let the stock market go down in free fall and affect the general economy of China.

Stocks showing weakness again

All stock markets rose miraculously in the first few weeks of the past week. Bad economic figures, employment figures, etc… people were ignoring those figures and stocks continued to go up. But it didn’t last long. On Friday (4/11/08), Dow Jones dropped over 250 points and NASDAQ dropped 61 points. I believe US stocks have just entered the beginning of yet another weak streak.

What would happen to the HK market when it opens on Monday (April 14 2008)? It definitely will open down but how the index will go over the day will depend pretty much on how China stock market is doing. As the China stock market tends to ignore what is happening in the global equity markets. And a lot of people believe that A-stocks is very close to its bottom. I believe HK stocks will open low (maybe open 800 points lower?) but then it will go back up. You may still see a down day but the drop may be less than 400 points.

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